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Valuing common stocks is a mystery to most investors. Recent extreme volatility in the stock market no doubt has added to the mystique. Indeed, many market observers insist that these gyrations support the notion that stock valuation is less art and science and more magic. This book s focus is on the art and science of stock valuation and how you can profitably use it in your investment decisions. In the pages that follow, we explain how you can apply the stock valuation principles used by professional money managers and Wall Street investment bankers to value your favorite stocks. The crucial concept we attempt to hammer home throughout this book is that the value of a stock like the value of any other financial instrument is equal to the discounted value of its expected cash flows, adjusted for risk and timing. For many investors, there are two general sources of confusion in the stock valuation process. First, how do we estimate future cash flows We clear up this question in 5. Second, what is the appropriate rate to discount uncertain cash flows We discuss this concern in 6. This book teaches you how to address these questions and use your answers to generate investment profits. Since we believe that it is helpful to know about the company in which you re considering an investment, 7 shows the what, where, and how of getting information instantaneously. 8 shows you how to use the DCF approach to value stocks such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, and Berkshire Hathaway. So let s go! If you get stuck on a term that is unfamiliar or a concept that is difficult to grasp, either reread the section or refer to the Glossary. It s now time to learn how to value a stock.

3. 7. 11. 15. 19.

12 3

4. 8. 12. 16. 20.

+5V +5V +5V NCD-101-1 +5V NCD-101-2

698 Appendix A 4 1. A 5. B 9. C 13. D 17. C 2. C 6. D 10. A 14. B 18. A 3. D 7. C 11. D 15. A 19. D 4. A 8. A 12. B 16. C 20. B

1. Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 1998, pages 13, and 79 80. 2. Siegel, pages 153 154. 3. $100 * 1.10 $127.69. $110 * 1.10 $121; $100 * 1.13 $113 * 1.13

5 1. B 5. A 9. B 13. B 17. B 2. D 6. B 10. D 14. C 18. C 3. C 7. D 11. B 15. A 19. B 4. C 8. A 12. C 16. C 20. C

12 3 7 10 13 15

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3. 7. 11. 15. 19.

4. The collapse of Long Term Capital Management has shown that there are no completely risk-neutral investment strategies. 5. For a description of the fundamental valuation techniques discussed in this section, see Aswath Damodaran, Investment Valuation, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, NY (1996), and Tom Copeland, Tim Koller, and Jack Murrin, Valuation Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, NY (1996). 6. Siegel describes tests of the efficient market theory and the movement of stock prices in great detail. 7. Georgette Jasen, Investment Dartboard, The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2002, c9.

14 7 16 1

4. 8. 12. 16. 20.

3. 7. 11. 15. 19.

3 4 15 5

4. 8. 12. 16. 20.

Many corporate board members, CEOs, and teachers of finance (including the authors of this book) believe that Ebeneezer Scrooge had it right the first time before the spirits enlightened him. The number-one priority of a business is to make money for its stockholders, with more profits being preferred to less. The goal of management should be to make stockholders happy by selling real products and services and earning real profits with real cash; not by inventing bogus revenues, such as when Global Crossing and Qwest swapped fiber optic cable capacity; not by reporting phantom profits, such as Enron generated from scam transactions; not by using aggressive or bogus accounting to boost stock prices artificially and trigger exorbitant stock grants, as the management of Computer Associates has done. If management succeeds at its task of creating a profitable and wellrun business, the firm s stock price should rise and management should be amply rewarded. Managers who perform poorly will become

3. 7. 11. 15. 19.

+5V +5V +5V NCD-101-3 +5V NCD-101-4 +5V NCD-101-5

4. 8. 12. 16. 20.

+5V NCD-101-6

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